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  • unitednations
    08-02 10:51 PM
    ouch. there is always uncertainty, all steps of this gc process :(

    thanks for the note. I only hope they 'go after' people if they suspect fraud or out of status or salary issues etc.

    We are just a widget/number to uscis adjudicator. All of these ability to pay denials were very scarce prior to 2004. However, in 2003 and 2004 a lot of the 245i labors got approved (gas stations, restaurants, etc.). USCIS started to see a lot of bogus companies filing for people. They decided to clarify in a memo how they were going to look at ability to pay. Now; ability to pay was used rarely, in those cases that didn't look genuine (if you go to AAO decisions you would have seen the type of companies that uscis usually went after). However, to combat the 245i labors they started to apply the memo to all companies. Just imagine that a company with $20 million revenue can get ability to pay denials; but a company with $15,000 in revenue can get approval.

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  • delax
    07-13 09:17 PM
    relax buddy,

    dont jump too much, i can see u are EB2 and trust me this date can go back anywhere without u getting ur golden card...i am EB3 and i am a pharmacist and i dont know why we are in EB3, we have much more demand than the computer people who all are in EB2. so buddy good luck if u get ur card in few months.... just pray for us....thank u...

    I hope you get your GC soon. As for me its 'wait until dark'. It'll come some day.

    And NO I am not an IT EB2. I am a non-STEM MBA in Finance who does not pratice engineering anymore.

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  • milind70
    07-11 11:21 AM
    Thanks Milind70,

    I had submitted the lattest I 94 to my company

    but somehow they filed ext with I 94 that came along with i 797

    now i will get three yr ext with I 140 cleared

    then i can get new i 94 with stamping

    You mean,
    talk to immigration officer now at local off?
    can they correct that i doubt since its already expired and i have new I797 with I94

    I think the best case for you is when u get your 3 year extension
    go to your home country for stamping and make sure u submit all your I 94s
    when u leave even the one that came with 797 .
    Whne u reenter you will get a new I 94.

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  • nojoke
    04-06 01:57 PM
    Quoting from various sources

    Slower building? �The demand for new homes in the Columbia region slowed significantly so far this year. Builders in Richland, Lexington and Kershaw counties saw a 33 percent drop to 1,082 single-family homes in the first three months of the year, according to the Home Builders Association of Greater Columbia.�
    ��We were expecting a downturn. I don�t know if I was expecting that much,� association executive director Earl McLeod said.�
    ��This is the worst I�ve ever seen it,� said builder David Beck, who has worked in the Columbia area for 17 years. �We�re just riding this to see what�s going to happen. I don�t think that it�s ever going to get back to the way it was.��
    ��The residential real estate industry ripple effect is a blood bath,� said David Marino of Irving Hughes, which specializes in representing tenants. �When we got hit hard in 2001 through 2003 in the tech side, the residential real estate guys took a lot of that space. Today, there�s no recovering industry sector to offset� the decline from housing-related companies.�

    From ABC 30. �That foreclosure crisis is hitting the Valley hard. Dozens of new homes will hit the auction block in Chowchilla this weekend.�
    �This three bedroom, two bath home has a starting price of 280-thousand dollars. That�s about 120-thousand dollars less than its previous price. And this is just one of 43 discounted homes that will be up for auction on Sunday.�
    �Project manager Ginger Hoggarth says this auction will be very different than those that sell foreclosed homes. �They are brand new homes and you do still get the one year warranty the builder would normally offer as well as a walk through.��

    �When the owners default, it leads to repossession rather than foreclosure, and these defaults are not included in the foreclosure data, said Moises Loza, HAC executive director. �It�s happening all over,� Loza said.�
    �Merced County, population 246,000, underwent a housing boom over the past few years that saw developments spring up on what used to be farmland, said Rep. Dennis Cardoza from Merced. Now, in towns like Atwater, housing values have dropped as much as 50 percent, the congressman said.�
    �The skeletons of houses where construction halted when the market went bust stand across a development where houses that sold for $400,000 just three years ago are now going begging at half the price.�

    The Mountain View Voice. �Market conditions and tight money are causing some builders to shut down large housing projects here, despite relatively firm prices and brisk sales of completed homes.�
    �At least two large developments have been halted or dropped so far, after the builders were frightened off by negative signs in the housing market. Two others are rumored to face problems.�
    �Just east of Highway 237 near the Sunnyvale border is evidence of the trouble. At 505 E. Evelyn Ave., a maze of driveways makes its way around the huge lot but leads up to only four model homes on the corner. The other 147 have yet to be built, and there have been no signs of construction for nearly a year.�
    �Dave Best, the project manager at Shea Homes, denied rumors that Shea was having trouble getting bank loans for the project.�
    ��It�s not that we don�t have the money to build it, we just have decided not to put our efforts in that particular project,� he said. �When we determine the market has come back and it makes sense to build, we will continue.��
    The Sacramento Bee. �After all the intellectual assessments and recital of statistics about the subprime loan crisis, a woman from Chicago asked the question on the minds of many people in neighborhoods where so many have lost their homes. She asked the question in a setting far removed from those neighborhoods, at a California conference hosted earlier this week by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.�
    ��I want to know � how many people are going to jail?� asked Yevette Boutall, director of a community development fund that works in lower-income neighborhoods of Cook County.�
    ��That�s how angry people are in communities,� said Boutall. �They want to know how many people are going to go to jail, people who misled them and got away with it and earned money on their misery.��
    �In San Francisco at the Fairmont Hotel, Boutall�s question went unanswered for the moment. But it struck a real note about people bearing the consequences of a time when mortgages and home prices went wild.�
    �Speakers at the San Francisco Fed conference uniformly estimated that 2 million households will surrender their keys to lenders in the next year or two. That was their prediction despite all the voluntary lender-government agreements, the millions of dollars for new nonprofit loan counselors and the average $40,000 to $70,000 a lender loses with every foreclosure.�
    ��I wish I had better news for you in the short term,� said Tom Cunningham, director of the risk monitoring and analysis group at the Fed�s San Francisco bank.�
    �He called the situation �unprecedented. We have never seen this before.��
    �What seemed new at the Fed conference was how few major ideas there are to stop it. Speakers defined the problem, defined proposals to help assure it doesn�t happen again. But they could not be encouraging about solutions.�
    �Speakers from the Fed, NeighborWorks America, the Center for Responsible Lending, Colorado Foreclosure Prevention Task Force and JPMorgan Chase talked about proposed legislation at state capitols and in Congress. They detailed efforts to reach out to struggling borrowers. But the big number � 2 million households during the next year or two � didn�t change.�


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  • satishku_2000
    08-02 07:10 PM
    Re-file 140 or file an appeal on the 140.

    Filing the appeal; you will be able to extend the h-1b.

    Thanks UN for your comments , any comments for the situation mentioned in this thread

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  • Macaca
    02-25 05:40 PM
    Is this book available? maybe we can get a bunch of copies and send to some editors, John Stewart/Stephen Colbert and some legislators.

    If the author is approachable, maybe an interview with him and some TV personality could be tried.

    Do a google search on Lou Dobbs H1B taxes. See how much crap comes out.

    There are some immigration article blogs that refer to statements made by Lou Dobbs. I want to respond with accurate references.


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  • looivy
    07-13 07:40 PM
    One of the qualifying criteria for EB2 is 5 years of experience. Right????

    If your I-485 application is stuck since July 2003 or prior, you are automatically EB2 by that rule. Are you not? You have been working for 5 years atleast.

    The revised rule should be

    EB2 eligibile = Anybody with experience on labor > 5 years (this would not impact current EB2 folks) or whose labor is older than 5 years (this will make EB3 folks happier).


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  • Rolling_Flood
    08-05 09:03 AM
    If you don't like my stand, fair enough.
    Neither you nor anyone else can stop me from taking legal counsel on this issue and going to the courts if i feel this porting thing is illegal in a sense.

    Please refrain from making cheap remarks like the ones you made towards the end of the post. They serve to highlight your issues more than mine. I am content with the EB2 folks who have already PM-ed me and we will, for sure, take this forward.

    Rolling Flood,

    Clearly, you are a NumberUSA person trying to provoke deep rifts amongst a highly skilled workforce that succeeded in getting HR 5882 out there. Your game is up. Look, no one is claiming porting / interfiling is due to 'length of time'. Each application, under each category, is for a DIFFERENT job. Now, obviously, when you gain experience in one job, you become MORE ELIGIBLE for another job, typically at a more senior level. With that, comes a higher income and higher TAXES back to the USA.

    Your perverted logic that people are using interfiling on the premise of 'waiting time in EB3 queues' is a fallacy without legal merit. EB3's that interfile to EB2's have to, LIKE ANYONE ELSE, show the merits of the EB2 application BY ITSELF.

    Now, if you think you can snake in a controversy through a law suit, only to protect your inflated sense of protectionism, keep in mind, that your target is EB2. I presume that you are in EB2 yourself. Be prepared for unintended consequences because USCIS could very well freeze ALL EB2's INCLUDING YOURS! Might seem a far stretch, but realistically, anytime a court sees 'merit' in challenging an established system / process, ALL come under purview. How can your case be assumed to be 'innocent' while everyone else that you are against be 'guilty'?

    There are numerous cases of people going to court seeking 'justice' only to find themselves very quickly standing 'on the other side'... trying to get out of a self inflicted mess.

    Obviously, you have issues that run deeper than discontentment with US legal immigration process. Get yourself some help. Seriously.


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  • delax
    07-13 09:43 PM
    you did not get my post...last thing we want is silly argument regarding EB2 and EB3................

    me neither. Pl read this post of mine:

    Some people dont seem to get the intent.

    Irrational passion calls for dispassionate rationality.

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  • gimme_GC2006
    03-25 04:08 PM
    I do not understand either...OP says he/she does not want to spend a grand (not sure if it costs that much) in attorney fees while he is willing to spend time/money trying to immigrate to Alberta. Taking a fatalistic approach and hoping for the best seems to be the idea. Again good luck to OP. are right..

    but dont know... I am going by hunch..I hope not to regret..:)


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  • mheggade
    07-15 10:35 AM
    <SARCASTIC> Ignorance is Bliss. </SARCASTIC>

    I just hope sanity makes a come back and people will see that the new visa over flow interpretation is advantages to EB3-I.

    OLD over flow interpretation

    EB1 ROW ------->EB2 ROW---------->EB3 ROW.

    New over flow interpretation.

    EB1 ---------------->EB2------------------------>EB3
    (Any chargeability) (Any chargeability) (Any chargeability)

    Only condition is visa should be allotted to the oldest PD in the lateral distribution irrespective of the country chargeability. That's the reason EB2 I and EB C are having same cutoff dates and all EB3 is U. DOS took away the advantage of ROW and gave it to oldest PD in the category.

    With this new interpretation EB3 I dates can make rapid progress and I fail to understand why EB3-I is upset about this.

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  • EkAurAaya
    08-05 06:00 PM
    I need to find out how many people are interested in pursuing this option, since the whole interfiling/PD porting business (based on a year 2000 memo) can seriously undermine the EB2 category.

    I am currently pursuing some initial draft plans with some legal representation, so that a sweeping case may be filed to end this unfair practice. We need to plug this EB3-to-EB2 loophole, if there is any chance to be had for filers who have originally been EB2.

    More than any other initiative, the removal of just this one unfair provision will greatly aid all original EB2 filers. Else, it can be clearly deduced that the massively backlogged EB3 filers will flock over to EB2 and backlog it by 8 years or more.

    I also want to make this issue an action item for all EB2 folks volunteering for IV activities.


    Friend... Your post is obviously selfishly motivated... and shortsighted. I'm sure if you were EB3 you would not make the same logical suggestion that you claim to be logical based on your self centered thinking.

    What you're suggesting is make it even more difficult for anyone to change jobs (then it already is)...

    Don't get too comfy with your EAD card, god forbid you might just get a RFE your AOS can get rejected, then you'll realize why your PD should be portable :D


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  • santb1975
    09-29 11:17 AM
    I am really frustrated being in this limbo after spending more than 10 years of my life here. This great land has given a lot to me and I really want to be part of this great nation and contribute to this land all my life. However, with my status still being temporary after 10 years it does not seem logical to make long term plans or make any investments in here.

    This year 4 of my class mates (from engineering college in India) have moved out of the US. I have one other classmate who had picked a position in Singapore over one being offered in the US two years back, and he already has his PR there. He did not want the uncertainty of not know what to call home even after 5 or 8 or 10 years. He called it "settling down".

    When we were graduating from engineering college, there was peer pressure to come to the US and pursue higher education and the "American Dream". Now I feel like my time to head out may come sooner rather than later.

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  • shivapb80
    01-06 04:45 PM
    i am sorry that israel has been a little callous about collateral damage...not cool!

    i have seen most of the opinions favouring israel so i need not speak out here. but these are my feelings and i don't care how many red dots i get:

    a. hamas does not believe in coexistence with israel but wants its destruction. and belongs to the powerful syria-iran-hezbollah axis. not cool!
    event Egypt and Saudi Arabia regard Hamas with skepticism.

    b. they teach kids that killing jews is the right thing. and btw for that matter US DoS had protested revised 4th grade Saudi text that teaches all non-believers should be killed. teaching hatred to kids is not cool!

    c. hamas was using mosques and schools as cover. hiding amongst civilian population, using women and children as suicide bombers and then making an outcry...not cool!

    d. hamas was the first to break the truce and had been secretly preparing via tunnels etc throughout the period of calm. not cool!

    e. in UK sometime back i remember a church had been converted to a mosque with the blessings of the locals. so cool!

    tibetians have been killed and driven out of their land for example...but you dont see the Dalai Lama summoning Tibetians for killing of chinese soldiers stationed in Tibet. so cool!

    ...not sure it would be possible in an islamic country. why is it that if it is "terrorism", it usually means islamic terrorism?
    moderates like you need to spread the message of negotiation and distance themselves from any act of violence and such teachings.


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  • Green06
    09-26 10:31 AM
    We are living in this country for 8 years on H1b with a hope that one day we will be permanent residents of this country. I love to see Senator Obama as the next president of US but I am afraid that that would be the end of my GC path. I have Canadian Immigration as a backup and if we don't get anything here by next year then we will move to Canada. We are already getting good offers from Alberta Canada and seriously thinking about moving there.

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  • gcbikari
    08-06 01:49 PM
    Lesson 1:

    A man is getting into the shower just as his wife is finishing up her shower, when the doorbell rings.
    The wife quickly wraps herself in a towel and runs downstairs. When she opens the door, there stands Bob, the next-door neighbor.
    Before she says a word, Bob says, "I'll give you $800 to drop that towel, "
    After thinking for a moment, the woman drops her towel and stands naked in front of Bob After a few seconds, Bob hands her $800 and leaves.
    The woman wraps back up in the towel and goes back upstairs.
    When she gets to the bathroom, her husband asks, "Who was that?"
    "It was Bob the next door neighbor," she replies.
    "Great," the husband says, "did he say anything about the $800 he owes me?"

    Moral of the story
    If you share critical information pertaining to credit and risk with your shareholders in time,you may be in a position to prevent avoidable exposure.


    Lesson 3:

    A sales rep, an administration clerk, and the manager are walking to lunch when they find an antique oil lamp. They rub it and a Genie comes out.
    The Genie says, "I'll give each of you just one wish."
    "Me first! Me first!" says the admin clerk. "I want to be in the Bahamas, driving a speedboat, without a care in the world."
    Puff! She's gone.
    "Me next! Me next!" says the sales rep. "I want to be in Hawaii, relaxing on the beach with my personal masseuse, an endless supply of Pina Coladas and the love of my life.."
    Puff! He's gone.
    "OK, you're up," the Genie says to the manager.
    The manager says, "I want those two back in the office after lunch."

    Moral of the story
    Always let your boss have the first say.


    Lesson 4:

    An eagle was sitting on a tree resting, doing nothing. A small rabbit saw the eagle and asked him, "Can I also sit like you and do nothing?"
    The eagle answered: "Sure , why not."
    So, the rabbit sat on the ground below the eagle and rested. All of a sudden, a fox appeared, jumped on the rabbit and ate it.

    Moral of the story
    To be sitting and doing nothing, you must be sitting very, very high up.


    Lesson 5:

    A turkey was chatting with a bull. "I would love to be able to get to the top of that tree," sighed the turkey,"but I haven't got the energy."
    "Well, why don't you nibble on some of my droppings?" replied the bull.
    They're packed with nutrients."
    The turkey pecked at a lump of dung, and found it actually gave him enough strength to reach the lowest branch of the tree.
    The next day, after eating some more dung, he reached the second branch.
    Finally after a fourth night, the turkey was proudly perched at the top of the tree. He was promptly spotted by a farmer, who shot him out of the tree.

    Moral of the story
    BullShit might get you to the top, but it won't keep you there.


    Lesson 6:

    A little bird was flying south for the Winter.It was so cold the bird froze and fell to the ground into a large field. While he was lying there, a cow came by and dropped some dung on him. As the frozen bird lay there in the pile of cow dung, he began to realize how warm he was.
    The dung was actually thawing him out! He lay there all warm and happy, and soon began to sing for joy.
    A passing cat heard the bird singing and came to investigate.
    Following the sound, the cat discovered the bird under the pile of cow dung, and promptly dug him out and ate him..

    Morals of this story

    (1) Not everyone who shits on you is your enemy.

    (2) Not everyone who gets you out of shit is your friend..

    (3) And when you're in deep shit, it's best to keep your mouth


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  • xyzgc
    12-27 12:04 AM
    Pakistan's nukes' user manuals are in Chinese language. How will they know how to fire them?

    They will figure it out. You too, Beemar, well-said.

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  • mbartosik
    04-09 12:23 AM
    We've met with a lot of law makers and their aids, and really the housing down turn is not an argument for GC that is productive to use. If I get 30 minutes with a law maker's aid, each minute is valuable I can muster many more compelling arguments in that time.

    So to answer your question: yes IV has considered this, but only for about 2 seconds. It is something that is not worth raising with law makers or media.

    When I bought my house no one was bothered about I485 etc., partly because they thought prices only moved up, and more importantly I had over 20% deposit, I had the money credit score and an SSN that's all they cared about then. I would only put mortgage in name of people with SSN, do not use tax payer ID. My wife does not have SSN, and it causes delays and hassle for things like credit cards. Also hope you have US driver license that is not marked as temporary as I could see that causing trouble at closing if someone is overly fussy.

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  • chanduv23
    03-26 04:35 PM
    I know that many people don't like it when their companies revoke I-140. They are not under any legal obligation to do so once the 140 is approved.

    However; to protect all the people who are still there then they should revoke the 140 for people who have left so there is less burden to prove ability to pay in case uscis adds up all cases together. I work on a lot of these cases and they are pretty complicated to solve.

    There was a case which we termed "baltimore" (mainly because it was decided by baltimore local office); essentially AAO said that a person can use ac21 within the same company (ie., for another job, another work location, etc.). That opened the door which some smart ass employers started to exploit. If one of their employees was eligible for ac21 they justified it by revoking 140 (even though person is still workin with them) and doing labor substitution for another candidate by thinking that first person is protected and i can use it for second person.

    From a purety point of view; in your scenario since there is no labor substitution then it shouldn't be a problem; however, in pre labor substitution days if you went back to work for the company in ac21 and they used the labor for someone else then it would pose some challenges.

    UN - As you are also a beneficiary of AC21 - what is your take on wrongful denials of 485 for AC21 cases that need to be resolved by MTR? Is it a training issue?

    12-26 09:33 PM
    Wal-Mart Lobbies Above Retail Value (http:// By DIBYA SARKAR | Associated Press, Dec 26, 2007

    WASHINGTON -- Wal-Mart's message to America is "Save money. Live better." Its motto in Washington might best be summed up another way: Spend more. Lobby harder.

    The world's largest retailer spent nearly $1.8 million in the first six months of 2007 and is on pace to break the nearly $2.5 million it spent for all of 2006.
    While overall spending on lobbying appears to be slowing a bit, some industries, such as private equity, and companies, such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., are bucking the trend.

    A relative newcomer to lobbying, the Bentonville, Ark.-based company is making sure Capitol Hill knows it doesn't take a discount approach to getting its message out about everything from immigration to financial-services licensing.

    Wal-Mart spent more than $4 million lobbying in the past 18 months compared with the $6.6 million it collectively spent in the prior seven years, according to federal lobbying reports.

    The retail sector as a whole isn't a lobbying juggernaut in Washington, where defense, energy and pharmaceutical industries write the big checks. For example, Target Corp. spent $100,000 in lobbying expenses in the first six months this year, Sears Holding Corp. spent about $141,000, while defense contractor Lockheed Martin Corp. spent $4.8 million in the same period.
    Wal-Mart spokesman David Tovar would not comment on specific legislation or issues. He said the company's spending depends on the congressional agenda.

    This year, that agenda included immigration reform legislation that failed and a minimum wage-hike bill that passed. The company has said higher wages will push up the cost of goods for customers.

    For their part, Wal-Mart lobbyists pushed for tougher tactics against organized retail crime and for legislation promoting electronic health records and other technology aimed at reducing health-care costs.

    But, Wal-Mart, long criticized for having skimpy employee health-insurance benefits, also lobbied against legislation that would allow employees to form, join or help labor organizations. Its employees are not unionized.

    In the financial services arena, Wal-Mart dropped a bid for a bank license earlier this year after it was strongly opposed by banks, unions and other critics. It continues to push for the ability to offer other financial services, such as prepaid Visa debit cards for millions of low-income shoppers who don't have bank accounts.

    Other issues listed on the disclosure form included legislation tied to international trade matters, currency, taxes and banking.

    Brian Dodge, spokesman for the Retail Industry Leaders Association, which counts Wal-Mart, Costco Wholesale Corp. and Target among its 60 retail members, said in the last few years his group's lobbying efforts have increased involving various issues, including product safety, the environment, organized retail crime, health insurance and jobs.

    While he couldn't speak specifically about Wal-Mart, Dodge said the retail industry must deal with more complex matters, such as imported products involving increased government oversight by several agencies.

    Wal-Mart, which established a Washington shop about 10 years ago, spent just $140,000 in 1999. It spent about a $1 million annually for the next several years, before increasing its lobbying representation and funds in 2005 amid increased criticism of labor practices and benefits.

    "For a long time, Sam Walton really didn't think that Wal-Mart should be involved in politics," said Lee Drutman, a University of California at Berkeley doctoral student who is writing his dissertation on lobbying. "That was part of his actual belief so Wal-Mart was late to the game."

    06-05 01:41 AM
    It's reassuring to see one's thought process wasn't entirely illogical after all.

    Now, if you talk to real estate agents, you'll be told this is "the best time to buy".


    here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
    this is from an article
    Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?

    First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.

    Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.

    * Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
    * New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
    * People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.

    This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.

    I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.

    Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.

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